Housing Market Weekly: Texas Metros Join Stress Surge as National Score Holds at 38

The national housing stress score remained unchanged at 38 this week, but beneath the surface stability, significant regional shifts are emerging. With 30-year mortgage rates at 6.46% and consumer sentiment at 56.6, stress continues to build across most markets, with 151 of 195 metros now registering stress scores of 25 or higher.

Biggest Movers: Texas Cities Lead Deterioration

Texas markets dominated this week's stress increases, with Austin jumping 4 points to a stress score of 50, Dallas rising 3 points to 49, and Memphis posting the week's largest increase at 7 points, reaching a stress score of 30. Phoenix and San Diego each added 4 and 3 points respectively, bringing their scores to 48.

The week's bright spot came from the Southeast, where Atlanta delivered a massive 20-point improvement, dropping its stress score to 26. Minneapolis followed with a 14-point decrease to 29, while Tampa improved 8 points to a stress score of 40.

Most Stressed Markets

North Carolina continues to dominate the most stressed metros list, with Asheville leading at a stress score of 59 and median home price of $415,000. Raleigh follows at 58 stress with $432,000 median prices, and Durham registers 57 stress at $405,000. Seattle rounds out the top stressed markets with a 57 stress score and $740,000 median price point. Charleston completes the top five with 56 stress and $428,000 median prices.

Crash Risk Hotspots

Lexington, KY tops the crash risk rankings with a score of 53, despite a moderate stress level of 42. Washington state markets feature prominently in crash risk scenarios, with Olympia at 52 crash risk and 55 stress, while both Spokane and Bremerton register 50 crash risk with 55 stress scores. Utica, NY presents 51 crash risk despite relatively low stress at 36.

Market	Crash Risk	Stress Score
Lexington, KY	53	42
Olympia, WA	52	55
Utica, NY	51	36
Spokane, WA	50	55
Bremerton, WA	50	55

Inventory Surge Signals

Inventory growth accelerated in key markets this week. Augusta, GA posted the largest year-over-year inventory increase at 44.9%, followed by Charleston, SC at 42.5%. Olympia, WA registered a 38.5% inventory surge, aligning with its elevated crash risk profile.

What to Watch

Texas Market Momentum: Monitor whether stress increases in Austin, Dallas, and Memphis continue next week, particularly if mortgage rates push higher.

Southeast Divergence: Track whether Atlanta's dramatic improvement holds while Charleston maintains high stress despite inventory surges.

Washington State Weakness: Watch crash risk development in Olympia, Spokane, and Bremerton as inventory builds and stress persists.

For complete metro-level data and real-time stress monitoring, visit crashwatch.live.