Housing Market Weekly: North Carolina Markets Dominate Stress Rankings as National Score Hits 38

The national housing stress score climbed to 38 this week, up one point from last week's 37, as mortgage rates held steady at 6.23%. With 148 of 195 metros now showing stress scores above 25, nearly 76% of tracked markets are exhibiting signs of strain. Consumer sentiment remains depressed at 53.3, reflecting continued buyer hesitation amid elevated borrowing costs.

Biggest Movers: Chicago Leads Deterioration While Charlotte Posts Major Improvement

Chicago posted the week's largest stress increase, jumping 5 points to a score of 42. San Antonio followed with a 3-point increase to 43, while Virginia Beach and Deltona each added 3 points, reaching scores of 39.

On the improvement side, Charlotte delivered the week's most dramatic turnaround, dropping 12 points to a stress score of 37. Tampa shed 9 points to reach 35, while Phoenix declined 7 points to 39. Las Vegas improved by 3 points to 49, and Albuquerque dropped 2 points to 35.

Most Stressed Markets: North Carolina Metros Lead National Rankings

North Carolina markets continue to dominate the highest stress rankings. Asheville tops the list with a stress score of 59 and median home price of $424K, followed closely by Raleigh at 58 with a $436K median. Durham rounds out the state's representation in the top five with a score of 56 and $410K median price.

Metro	Stress Score	Median Price
Asheville, NC	59	$424K
Raleigh, NC	58	$436K
Seattle, WA	57	$752K
Charleston, SC	56	$430K
Durham, NC	56	$410K

Seattle holds the third position with a stress score of 57 but carries the highest median price at $752K. Charleston completes the top five with a score of 56 and $430K median, while also experiencing a significant inventory surge of 38.1% year-over-year.

Crash Risk Hotspots: Utica Leads Risk Rankings Despite Moderate Stress

Utica, NY presents the highest crash risk at 57, despite maintaining a relatively moderate stress score of 36. This disconnect suggests underlying vulnerabilities beyond current stress indicators. Washington state metros feature prominently in crash risk rankings, with Spokane and Yakima both posting crash risk scores of 53, while Olympia follows at 52. Greenville, SC rounds out the top five crash risks at 50 with a stress score of 39.

Inventory Surge Indicators

Several markets are experiencing dramatic inventory increases that signal shifting dynamics. Augusta, GA leads with a 40.6% year-over-year inventory surge, followed by Charleston, SC at 38.1% and Lexington, KY at 35.8%. These inventory buildups often precede price corrections in stressed markets.

What to Watch

Monitor Chicago's continued deterioration after this week's 5-point stress increase, as major metro breakdowns often signal broader regional weakness. Track whether Charlotte can sustain its 12-point improvement or if this represents temporary relief. Watch inventory trends in Augusta and Charleston, where supply surges above 35% are testing market absorption capacity.

Get real-time stress scores and crash risk alerts at crashwatch.live