Merced, CA
Stress
52STRESS
Risk
37MODERATE
7d+1
Generating analysis...
BuyingChallenging for buyers
Affordability is severely stretched in Merced. Budget carefully, expect competition to ease, consider nearby metros.
SellingMarket is shifting
Moderate correction risk. Price competitively. Overpriced listings are sitting longer.
OwningStay informed
Some indicators elevated but nothing alarming. Home likely holding value.
Score Breakdown
$419K-1.3% YoY
19.1%of listings reduced
52median
567-2.4% YoY
$2,552PITI on median
42.7%of income
0.30%
6.66%
5.2%state (BLS)
WestBLS regional adjustment
Larger shape = more stress from more sources.
Market Signals
12-MONTH FORECAST
Statistical projection based on historical trends.
12-month price projectionTrend direction, confidence bands, and R-squared fit.
Try FreeAffordability
AFFORDABILITYRenting $542/mo cheaper ($2,010 rent)6.66% 30yr, 20% down, county tax + CA ins. 28% per HUD.
Enter your income for Merced.
$83,799 on $418,997.39
Out of reach — 40.8% of income
Need $109,371/yr to afford.
PITI$2,552
P/I40.8%
Afford$287K
Gap-$132K
P&I $2,154Tax $248Ins $150
Home Buying Kit For Dummies (2025)Financing, negotiation, closing
RENT VS BUY
Rent$2,010/mo
Buy (PITI)$2,552/mo
Renting 27% cheaper20% down, 6.66%, 30yr fixed, full PITI
17.4xFair Value
1 years
051015yr
Extra/mo$542
Equity/yr$21,128
Buying pays off quickly.
Trend
Score HistoryAug 1, 2026
Rising = worse for buyers.
Full 2-year history30 days free. Pro unlocks everything.
Try FreeReading
Guides for navigating a stressed market.